The US think tank made the assessment in its latest report on the war in Ukraine, published on Thursday night.
The ISW wrote: “Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 7 and made further gains on both sectors of the front.”
According to geolocated footage published on Thursday, Ukrainian troops have made further advances northwest of Verbove (18km southwest of Orikhiv), in the west part of Zaporizhzhia, the US think tank said.
Meanwhile, geolocated footage also published on Thursday indicates that Ukrainian forces have made “marginal gains” northwest of Klishchiivka, which is situated 7 km southwest of Bakhmut, the ISW added.
Bakhmut, in the eastern Donetsk region, was seized by Russian forces in May, following a bloody months-long battle, news outlets reported.
According to Ukraine’s General Staff, Kyiv’s forces achieved successes south of Bakhmut, as well as near the recently liberated, strategically crucial Robotyne, and Verbove, both in the west part of Zaporizhzhia, the ISW added.
Ukrainian troops are seeking to push southwards through Zaporizhzhia to the Sea of Azov, to split Russian forces, according to officials.
According to US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Director of Analysis Trent Maul, there is a “realistic possibility” that Ukrainian forces will break through the entire Russian defences in southern Ukraine by the end of 2023, Britain’s The Telegraph newspaper reported.
Maul said on Wednesday in an interview with The Economist that Ukraine’s recent successes are “significant.”
He added these gains gave Ukraine a “realistic possibility” of “breaking the remaining Russian lines by the end of the year.”
In the intelligence community, a “realistic possibility” means “40-50% probability,” The Economist noted.
Friday is day 562 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, launching the largest military campaign in Europe since World War II.
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Source: ISW, PAP, The Telegraph, The Economist