"Wagner Group mercenaries likely secured the western administrative borders of Bakhmut City while Ukrainian forces are continuing to prioritize counterattacks on Bakhmut’s outskirts," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said in its latest analysis of Russia's military campaign in Ukraine.
The Washington-based think tank cited Ukrainian military officials as saying that Ukrainian forces were controlling an "insignificant" part of "southwestern Bakhmut City around the T0504 highway," which it said was "a tacit acknowledgement that Russian forces have secured the rest of western and northwestern Bakhmut, if not all of it."
The ISW observed that "these officials’ statements indicate that Ukrainian forces withdrew from the remaining areas in Bakhmut except those adjacent to the two highways into the city."
It reported that geolocated footage published on Sunday "showed Wagner forces raising Russian and Wagner flags over a residential building in westernmost Bakhmut."
The ISW also noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday congratulated the Wagner Group and the Russian military for capturing Bakhmut.
But the think tank said "the Wagner Group’s likely capture of the last remaining small area of western Bakhmut does not impact ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks north or south of Bakhmut, nor does it impact Ukrainian control over the ground lines of communications (GLOCs) around Bakhmut that exhausted Wagner forces would need to reach in order to conduct further offensive operations."
According to the ISW, Russian forces "will likely need additional reinforcements to hold Bakhmut City and its flanks at the expense of operations in other directions."
'Ukrainian advances could lead to tactical encirclement of Wagner forces'
Ukrainian military sources "reported that Russian forces lost part of the dominant heights around Bakhmut and noted that sustained Ukrainian advances could lead to a tactical encirclement of Wagner forces in Bakhmut," the Institute for the Study of War also said.
The ISW has previously assessed that "Wagner offensive operations would likely culminate after months of attritional urban combat, and it is unlikely that Wagner will continue fighting beyond Bakhmut at its current depleted state."
Russia invaded Ukraine by land, air and sea on February 24, 2022, launching the largest military campaign in Europe since World War II.
Monday is day 453 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
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Source: PAP, understandingwar.org