"Not only Ukraine, but also other neighbors of Russia and Belarus should be concerned and prepared for possible provocations. The previous Zapad exercises had an aggressive legend and were nontransparent, and it is very unlikely that the upcoming military drills will be better. Most likely, Russian and Belarusian troops will practice attacks against Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Ukraine", says Maksym Khylko (Russian and Belarusian Studies Program Director at the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism", PhD).
"The risks of provocations on the borders of Belarus are possible. For several months already Minsk has been testing the borders of Lithuania and Poland with provocations using the migrants as a hybrid warfare. In the presence of Russian troops in Belarus, such incidents could lead to local clashes and maybe even with the use of weapons", he points out.
"The risks are also increased due to the fact that "Zapad" exercises are held just on the eve of the parliamentary elections in Russia. The rating of Putin's "United Russia" party has been falling for several months, and it is possible that some kind of military provocation may be used in order to mobilize voters with pseudo-patriotic rhetoric under the guise of allegedly aggressive actions by "foreign enemies", he adds.
A joint action by Kremlin and Minsk
The analyst stressed that the current hybrid operations on the border should be treated as a joint operation by Minsk and Moscow.
"A big problem with the West's response to the migration crisis on Lithuania’s and Poland’s borders is the inclination to interpret these actions as solely Lukashenka's initiative to take revenge on Vilnius and Warsaw for their stance in support of the Belarusian people. This simple explanation is very convenient for those in Brussels who prefer to ignore Moscow’s co-responsibility for these hybrid attacks on Lithuania and Poland. But the reality is that since August 2020, the Kremlin has had an extremely powerful influence over Belarus’ foreign and security policy. And with the help of this migrant crisis, Moscow through its Minsk satellite is testing the preparedness of NATO and the EU to respond jointly and decisively to hybrid attacks against the member states", he added.
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