Marek Migalski, former Euro MP and Professor at the University of Silesia in Katowice, writing for Rzeczpospolita has suggested that the current hot topics in Polish political life favour the left and the right - but not the centre.
In his view the most hotly debated subjects now in Polish politics are the farmers' protests and abortion. The former, Migalski believes, will raise polling numbers for the right while abortion will serve the left.
His argument is bolstered by the particular situations of the relevant parties. The (far) right is represented by Konfederacja which was not in government with PiS in the last government, nor is a member of the present ruling coalition. Migalski believes this will put them in a good position to criticise policy from a comfortable armchair.
The Left is a member of the current ruling coalition. However, its clear position on abortion (to quickly implement election promises of liberalisation of Poland's highly restrictive laws) may come across to voters as more consistent that its coalition partners. The Third Way is centre-right and its leaders are outspoken Catholics, while Tusk (prime minister and leader of centrist KO) made clear election promises to the women's movement.
The first argument concerning Konfederacja is perhaps more convincing that the second. Law and Justice (PiS) may be expected to lose nationalist supporters to Konfederacja, particularly in view of PiS's past support for Ukraine. For example, this farming magazine published the headline that Kaczyński declared that "Ukrainian grain represents no threat to Poland." Kaczyński can expect to have those words read back to him if the farming crisis continues.
Whether the Left can cash in on its clear position on abortion is less clear. The Third Way leaders, Szymon Hołownia and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, have risen in opinion polls of public trust since the October election victory.
Hołownia's stance of "let a referendum decide" combined with high personal trust may well keep left-wing voters by his side. Like the Warsaw mayor and presidential favourite Rafał Trzaskowski, he exhibits a genuine liberalism to voters by declaring his Catholicism while respecting the freedoms of non-Catholics.
The Left in Poland, as in Europe, still faces a deeper crisis. Law and Justice introduced the most ambitious social benefits program Europe has seen in recent times, starting with its flagship 500+ Program, thereby making deep inroads into traditional left-wing territory.
Like other populist parties across the world - for example the BJP in India or the Conservatives in the UK - Law and Justice has felt free to choose left-wing policies where opinion polls demand it. This has left the nominal Left looking like "champagne socialists" - demanding changes in attitude important to left-wing middles class voters, but not contributing to social justice in a deeper way.
Sources: Rzeczpospolita, wnp.pl, cenyrolnicze.pl
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